根据彭(peng)博新能(neng)源财经(BNEF)的(de)数据，2016年(nian)全球电力(li)装机6719吉瓦(wa)，其(qi)中煤电占比(bi)30%，其(qi)次是天(tian)然(ran)气发(fa)电(24%)、水电(17%)、陆上风电(7%)、燃油(6%)、光伏(5%)、核电(5%)。可(ke)见，2016年(nian)化石(shi)能(neng)源发(fa)电容量占比(bi)达(da)到(dao)60%。

BNEF预(yu)测2040年全球电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)装机(ji)将达(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)13919吉瓦，届时光伏(fu)(fu)装机(ji)容量占比将达(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)32%(22%公共事(shi)业(ye)级光伏(fu)(fu)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站、10%小型光伏(fu)(fu)系统)，其次是(shi)陆上风电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(14%)、天然气(qi)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(14%)、煤电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(13%)、水(shui)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(12%)、核电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(2%)。这样看来，到(dao)(dao)2040年风电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)光伏(fu)(fu)装机(ji)占比将达(da)(da)到(dao)(dao)46%，但由于容量因子较低(全年发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)小时数)，BNEF预(yu)计风电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)光伏(fu)(fu)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量占比为34%。

然而，其他机构的(de)预测(ce)要大大低(di)于BNEF的(de)预测(ce)。比如(ru)国际能源(yuan)署(IEA)认为(wei)(wei)2040年的(de)风电光伏占总发电量的(de)比例约为(wei)(wei)16%，在一次(ci)能源(yuan)消费(fei)中(zhong)仅占2.9%。